The 2026 Oscars nominations predictions have been buzzing since the official list dropped in late January, setting the stage for one of the most anticipated Academy Awards nights in recent memory. With the 98th Academy Awards ceremony set for March 15, 2026, at the Dolby Theatre (hosted by Conan O’Brien), the race feels electric. Films from 2025 like One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value dominate discussions, and the frontrunners are clear—but surprises could still shake things up.
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Why the 2026 Oscars Nominations Feel So Competitive
This year’s nominations reflect a strong mix of big-studio epics, bold directorial visions, and standout performances. Sinners made history with a record-breaking 16 nominations—the most ever for a single film—highlighting Ryan Coogler’s ambitious vampire-blues thriller starring Michael B. Jordan. But One Battle After Another, Paul Thomas Anderson’s sweeping political epic with Leonardo DiCaprio, racked up 13 nods and sits as the consensus Best Picture favorite according to most expert trackers.
What makes this race fascinating? It’s not just quantity of nominations; it’s momentum from precursors like the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTAs, SAG, and PGA. One Battle After Another cleaned up at several major events, giving it that “inevitable” vibe, while Sinners keeps surging with its cultural impact and technical prowess. Think of it like a heavyweight boxing match—Anderson’s film has the experience and reach, but Coogler’s underdog has knockout power.
Other strong players include Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet (a poignant literary adaptation), Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme (featuring Timothée Chalamet in what many call a career-defining role), and Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value (a quiet Norwegian gem gaining international love).
Top Best Picture Contenders: 2026 Oscars Nominations Predictions
Best Picture remains the crown jewel, with 10 slots filled this year. Here’s how the top contenders stack up based on current consensus from sites like Gold Derby, Variety, IndieWire, and AwardsWatch.
- One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — The clear frontrunner. With Paul Thomas Anderson directing a star-studded cast including DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, and Teyana Taylor, this film blends technical mastery with emotional depth. It leads in combined odds (around 79-80%) and has swept many precursors. If it wins, expect a dominant night with 4+ statues.
- Sinners (Warner Bros.) — The record-holder for nominations. Ryan Coogler’s genre-blending masterpiece earned praise for originality, performances (especially Jordan), and crafts. It could pull off an upset if voters prioritize innovation over tradition.
- Hamnet (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao brings quiet power to this Shakespeare-inspired story. Jessie Buckley’s lead performance is a lock for Actress contention, boosting the film’s overall chances.
- Marty Supreme (A24) — Timothée Chalamet’s star vehicle under Josh Safdie has massive fan support. It’s a strong contender for Actor and Original Screenplay, but Best Picture momentum feels slightly behind the top two.
- Sentimental Value (Neon) — Joachim Trier’s emotional drama with Stellan Skarsgård has international appeal and precursor love in Supporting Actor.
Other nominees likely include Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro’s Netflix gothic tale, strong in tech categories), The Secret Agent, Train Dreams, and Bugonia.
Best Director: A Near-Lock for Paul Thomas Anderson?
Best Director predictions are about as close to certain as it gets this season. Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another sits at 92-93% odds across trackers. This would be his long-overdue win after multiple nominations. Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) round out the likely field.
Anderson’s film feels like the kind of ambitious, auteur-driven work the Academy loves to reward late in a career.
Acting Categories: Who’s Leading the Pack?
The acting races add serious star power.
- Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) holds a strong lead (around 72%), with Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) in contention. Chalamet’s “it’s his time” narrative is powerful.
- Best Actress: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) dominates at over 91%. Her performance is hailed as transformative.
- Supporting Actor: Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) edges out Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) and others like Benicio del Toro.
- Supporting Actress: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) leads strongly.
These categories could deliver emotional moments—imagine Chalamet finally getting his gold.
Technical Categories and Surprises to Watch
Sinners and Frankenstein lead in crafts like Cinematography, Production Design, Makeup, and Visual Effects. One Battle After Another sweeps editing and sound potential.
Possible surprises? A late surge for The Secret Agent in International Feature or an under-the-radar tech win for Train Dreams.
How to Stay Ahead of the 2026 Oscars Curve
With final voting underway (Feb. 26–March 5), precursors like SAG and PGA could shift momentum. Follow trackers like Gold Derby for live odds updates.
And for the ultimate fan experience, Oscars watch parties Hollywood 2026 turn predictions into communal thrills—red carpets, ballots, themed drinks, and live cheers as winners are announced.
Final Thoughts on the 2026 Oscars Nominations
The 2026 Oscars nominations predictions point to a showdown between One Battle After Another‘s prestige sweep and Sinners‘ bold innovation, with strong supporting stories from Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and others. Paul Thomas Anderson seems destined for Director, Timothée Chalamet for Actor, and Jessie Buckley for Actress—but award nights love twists.
Whether you’re betting on frontrunners or rooting for upsets, this ceremony promises glamour, surprises, and celebration of cinema. Mark March 15 on your calendar, grab your predictions sheet, and get ready for Hollywood’s biggest night.
Here are three high-authority external links:
- Check live odds and updates at Gold Derby Oscars 2026.
- Read detailed predictions from Variety’s 2026 Oscars coverage.
- Explore the official nominees on the Academy’s Oscars site.
FAQs
Who is the current Best Picture favorite in 2026 Oscars nominations predictions?
One Battle After Another leads most trackers with 79-80% odds, thanks to precursor wins and strong nominations.
Which film broke the record for most nominations in 2026 Oscars?
Sinners earned 16 nominations, the highest ever for a single film.
Who is predicted to win Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars?
Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme is the strong frontrunner in current predictions.
When are the 2026 Oscars taking place?
The 98th Academy Awards air on March 15, 2026, hosted by Conan O’Brien.
How can I enjoy the 2026 Oscars if I’m not in LA?
Join Oscars watch parties Hollywood 2026 virtually or host your own viewing—many stream the show with friends for the full experience.
